Contribution Analysis in Market Systems Development
An Example from Sri Lanka
It is well-recognised that market systems development (MSD) programs operate in complex and dynamic environments, posing particular challenges in assessing attribution and impact to any one intervention or causal factor.1 Good practice in MSD evaluation suggests that programs should focus on measuring which changes are systemic, consider and document other contributory factors, and measure impact following the intervention to ascertain the sustainability of impact2.2 One possible approach to implementing the recommended practices is Contribution Analysis (CA), a theory-based approach to evaluation that sets out to establish plausible evidence of a program’s contribution to change.3 CA recognises that pathways to change are complex and many factors contribute to outcomes in addition to a specific program intervention.4 Rather than a definitive, binary assessment method (i.e. did the program cause this change or not), CA is similar to the process of building a case in a court of law, in which evidence is presented and a judgment made on the validity of the argument.5 At its simplest, CA sets out the evaluation question to be examined and uses a blend of qualitative and quantitative research methods to build a case that an external intervention either contributed or did not contribute to the outcome. It has not been widely used in MSD programs but offers a compelling approach to making reasonable claims about causality in complex situations
Market Development Facility Sri Lanka
Market Development Facility (MDF) in Sri Lanka recently implemented CA to better understand positive, unintended consequences in the fisheries sector.7 One of MDF’s initial intervention areas was to increase business activity in the conflict-affected North. MDF’s analysis showed that most of the poor in the North made their living in either fishing or agriculture so looked for opportunities to increase employment and income in those sectors. The interventions in fisheries sought to generate employment in value-adding fish processing facilities in the Northern districts of Jaffna and Mannar. While their support to several companies did result in over 300 jobs, of which 90% were for women, regular monitoring picked up a sustained increase in prices for Blue Swimmer Crab (BSCs). MDF opted to use CA to understand why the price increase happened, why and to what extent MDF may or may not have contributed, and how.
