Beyond Coffee

Agri-Commodities Export Potential from Timor-Leste

As the world begins a substantive shift to renewable energy, Timor-Leste remains overly reliant on oil and gas resources for sustaining its economy. More than 90 per cent of total exports and over 80 per cent of government revenue are from oil and gas resources. However, these resources are forecast to dry up by 2034. While the economy has grown in recent years, this has been driven by government spending, which is an unsustainable practice in the long term. There is a consensus that Timor-Leste must diversify its economic base. Aside from the petroleum industry, the government’s strategic plan prioritises investment in the agriculture and tourism sectors. Currently, Timor-Leste’s largest non-oil exports are agricultural produce. These commodities contribute to only 5% of total exports from the country.

By far the largest agricultural export is coffee, and the export values for other commodities are much smaller and inconsistent on an annual basis. Coffee production is also highly vulnerable to climate change, as evidenced by low harvests due to untimely rains in 2022, traditional coffee growing areas are expected to become more marginal as temperatures increase. If Timor-Leste were successful in developing other export commodities,